نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استاد گروه علوم سیاسی و مطالعات انقلاب اسلامی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران.
2 دانشجوی دکترای آینده پژوهی، پژوهشکده آینده پژوهی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی، قزوین، ایران.
3 دانشیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده معارف اسلامی و مدیریت، دانشگاه امام صادق (علیه السلام)، تهران، ایران.
4 استادیار، دانشگاه و پژوهشگاه عالی دفاع و تحقیقات راهبردی، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
All existing views and writings about strategy development using scenario building suffers fantasy and “simple but impossible to imitate” thinking which arises of absence of coherence and consensus on the origins of scenario building which leads to distress and high diversity, deep confusion and serious rift. This article by accepting the operational advantages of existing methodologies, is up to establish the scenario building in a way that is more cognitive, more fundamental and more comprehensive and deals with organizing these features in a two-layer model. It also focuses on the integration of and fundamental requirements of scenario building, along with more practical and more known steps. This two-layer model, is combined with traditional causal scientific positivism in the first layer, the second layer post-structuralist semanalysis and claims that with starting symbolic and continuous effort, helps the organization in terms of uncertainty, to discover the truth or building more robust long term truth. We used Dubin technique (Dubin, 1978), to organize searching steps and using the citation method on the basis of this methodology proposes some points to verify long term and various aspects of method.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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