نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استاد گروه اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
2 استادیار گروه بین رشته ای فناوری، دانشکده علوم و فنون نوین، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
3 استادیار گروه مدیریت کسب و کار، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
4 دانشجوی دکتری آینده پژوهی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The present paper seeks to provide possible scenarios for future oil prices up to the horizon of 1410 by identifying key global effective factors on a global scale. The data of this paper include 68 factors that are obtained by combining Elite interview and Delphi method. In two stages, the main factors are identified, refined or combined. Finally, 40 factors and main trends were identified and collected through questionnaires, their interactions, and analyzed using the microarray software. Finally, six factors are identified as key events and impacts that have the most impact on future crude oil prices. Finally, 24 possible states were defined for 6 factors. Due to the size of the matrix and its dimensions (24*24), the scenario planner, 3375 combined scenarios based on the data entered in the analysis questionnaire and 11 strong or probable scenarios, 29 scenarios with high adaptability (incredible scenarios) and 39 scenarios Poor (possible scenarios) reported. Which was finally descriptively named after the certification and validation by Chaosanario's experts with titles, the Blue Whale, the Ellenino Storm, the Al-Dawraudo Land, and the legendary Three Brothers.
کلیدواژهها [English]